TREB market watch for September 2023, Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales remained under pressure due to the lingering effects of elevated borrowing costs, high inflation, uncertainty regarding future Bank of Canada decisions, and a deceleration in economic growth. Nevertheless, despite an increase in available property listings, the year-over-year average selling price saw an uptick. TRREB President Paul Baron commented, ‘The prospects for the GTA housing market differ markedly in the short and medium term. In the near future, the consensus indicates that interest rates will remain elevated until mid-2024, after which they are expected to decrease. This implies that we should witness a significant rise in demand for property ownership in the latter half of the following year as lower rates and robust population growth stimulate buyer interest.”

“In September 2023, TRREB’s MLS® System documented 4,642 home sales, marking a 7.1 percent decline according to the market watch from September 2022. The decrease in sales was more noticeable for ground-oriented homes, especially semi-detached residences and townhouses. Moreover, on a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis, sales experienced a modest decline as observed in the market watch. New listings, on the other hand, significantly increased compared to September 2022. The number of listings also showed an upward trend on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, indicating an interesting development in the market watch. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark exhibited a 2.4 percent year-over-year increase, while the average selling price rose by three percent during the same period, as reported in the market watch. On a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis, both the average selling price and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark saw a slight decrease of less than one percent.”

“GTA home prices have remained above the lows seen in early 2023. However, the market experienced a more balanced phase during the summer and early autumn, with listings noticeably outpacing sales in the market watch. This implies that, at least in the short term, some buyers may enjoy increased negotiation leverage, potentially mitigating the impact of high borrowing costs,” noted TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

TRREB CEO John DiMichele pointed out that “TRREB’s annual consumer surveys have revealed that half of prospective home buyers in Toronto are first-time purchasers each year, which is a key point in the market watch. The average price of a condominium in Toronto exceeds $700,000. Yet, the upfront land transfer tax exemption threshold for first-time buyers has remained at $400,000 for fifteen years. Keeping this in mind, TRREB commends Toronto City Council for requesting a report on a more appropriate exemption level going forward.” He also emphasized the importance of aligning housing and taxation policies across various government levels to address the ongoing housing crisis, a crucial aspect of the market watch.

If you need more information, please contact us.